Unprecedented unemployment rate, abject poverty in the midst of plenty: When a well known human right activist, Chief Mike Ozekhome was kidnapped, he was quoted as saying that his abductors ‘’spoke Queens English and claimed to be graduates’’. The blokes claimed they took to kidnapping because of lack of employment.

Lack of intelligence, sophisticated technology

 ‘National Cake Syndrome’ and resource control connection: Niger-Delta youths arguably popularized kidnap for ransom in Nigeria as an instrument of recouping their own fair share of the national cake and to press home their demand for resource control.
Religious connotation: Boko Haram Islamic Sect basks on a warped ideology that ‘’Western Education is Forbidden’’ believe young girls have no business attending schools, but should be in their husbands homes, hence they kidnapped the Chibok school's girls to dissuade other girls from attending schools and also as an instrument of coercion

Forecasting The Future of Kidnapping in Nigeria

Granted mortals are not omniscient and cannot say with cast-iron certainty how future events will pan out, but we can at least make very coherent extrapolations, forecast the future based on previous, ongoing scenarios and other variables thrown into the mix.
For a start, the Nigerian economy is not in the best of shape. Some argue Nigeria may be sliding to a recession if urgent steps are not taken to check the current economic downturn.

Crude oil prices, stocks, the Naira (Nigerian currency) have continued to plunge. Banks and other organizations are laying off staff. Unemployment, abject poverty is at an all-time high and there is no safety net.

Despite the so-called bailout largesse to state governors, backlog of salaries are yet to be cleared. In the Niger-Delta, the security situation is quite fluid due to the imminent end to the hitherto mouth-watering amnesty largesse, scholarships and contracts (crude oil pipeline protection contract, amongst others) that empowered Niger-Delta youths and birthed nouveau-riche dollar millionaires/billionaires.

Let’s hope the forthcoming gubernatorial election in Bayelsa state will not witness an upsurge in political brinkmanship and kidnapping. It also appears Nigeria’s counter insurgency operation in the North-East has seen more security personnel deployed to that area, thereby creating a security lacuna in the southern flank.
Now that Boko Haram is been outgunned and hemmed in, with no possibility of holding and occupying territories, the probable and feasible option left for the sect is to wage some kind of guerrilla warfare (random suicide bombings, drive-by killings), with kidnapping in the mix.

Prognosis: the butterfly-effect of a combination of the aforementioned factors is that violent extremism and kidnapping trend in Nigeria will persist if the aforementioned pull-factors are not reined. In her October 2015 essay, Red24’s Special Risks Analyst, Nicole Elliott reckons kidnap for ransoms and extortions (KRE) and short-term kidnappings are ‘’established threats in Nigeria’’ and are  ‘’unlikely to change in the foreseeable future’’.

Recommendations: How To Tackle, Rein in Kidnappings in Nigeria:

That kidnapping continues to be rife in Nigeria despite the very drastic death penalty imposed on perpetrators of this vicious crime is evidenced that once an individual makes up their mind to commit a crime, even a death penalty does not dissuade them from that act. A multi-faceted, holistic approach (immediate, short and long term measures) will go a long way in drastically reducing if not stamping out kidnappings in Nigeria.

The following steps will help stave off and curtail kidnappings in Nigeria:

⦁    Common Sense, VIGILANCE and Resilience! It is established that security is the primary responsibility of every government but every responsible individual have a role to play in his personal security and safety and must not throw caution to the wind, especially in our clime, where the government is bedeviled by challenges in all fronts.
⦁    There is no better time than now for all Nigerians to be security conscious and ensure they do their part towards ensuring their personal safety and security. Kidnappings don’t just happen pronto. The bad guys do their own research and usually trail their victims for a while before striking.
⦁    If you are driving and you notice a car trailing you consistently, NEVER drive straight to your home, better to enter a public place. Seldom have a predictable or regular routine or route. Don’t disclose your travel itineraries to strangers or third parties. If you feel unsafe, go out in groups.
⦁    Carry out a due diligence on domestic aides: house helps, drivers, private security officers as the disgruntled and unscrupulous amongst them can engineer the kidnapping of their paymasters or his wards.
⦁    In this age of social media and internet, folks MUST desist from unwittingly leaving a trail of their travel plans, material acquirements, schools their wards attend amongst others. This applies mostly to nouveau-riches, the so-called celebrities who bask on flaunting their material possessions on social media - Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc.
⦁    Bear in mind that even without obviously saying where a picture was taken, recent cameras, Smartphones and gadgets have a way of embedding GPS locations on pictures which will enable an interested party to extrapolate, where the picture was shot. The good news is that the GPS feature on these techies can be turned off and on.
⦁    Feel free to turn it off if need be. There are times when things just go, wrong no matter how careful one is. If this happens and one falls prey to kidnappers, it is advisable to comply with their instructions. Don’t go arguing or trying to play James Bond to avoid being killed by the abductors.
⦁    If a victim, be mindful not to menacingly stare at your abductor(s) as this may give an impression that you can identify him/her. That is on the personal security, safety side of things.
⦁    To the Nigerian government, it is trite that Nigeria is grossly under-policed. Whereas the United Nations recommends a Police to people ratio of 1:400, Nigeria can only boast of about 371,000 policemen, grossly inadequate for a country of 170 million people. The reasonable thing to do is not only to recruit more policemen, but also ensure they are well motivated and kitted.
⦁    Tackle unprecedented unemployment. It is foolhardy to expect tranquility to prevail in a country rich in human and natural resources, where official unemployment guesstimate hovers around 8.2 percent in the second quarter of 2015. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo once averred that unemployment is a ticking time bomb in Nigeria.
⦁    Ramp up quick prosecution of culprits
⦁    Quick dispensation of justice will go a long way in stemming the tide of kidnappings in Nigeria. As the saying goes: ‘’Justice delayed is justice denied’’. It portends danger when culprits waltz or wriggle out of prosecution and penalty. Sometime in October 2010, a traditional ruler and a college provost were kidnapped in Ekiti State by a band of kidnappers. While taking the victims to a hideout in Delta State a fatal accident occurred at Kabba in Kogi State during which both victims were killed, while the kidnappers were seriously injured.
⦁    The kidnappers were arrested by the police and charged to court. The trial court ordered that the kidnap suspects be remanded in prison custody, but they subsequently escaped from prison in 2014 during a violent attack at the Lokoja prison by unknown gunmen.
⦁    In September 2013, Nigerians were told that a combined security team drawn from the Nigerian Army and Department of State Security Service (DSS) arrested a notorious kidnapper, one Kevin Prosper Oniarah, also known as Kevin Ibruvwe who, allegedly masterminded the kidnapping of Human Rights Lawyer, Chief Ozekhome, but two years down the line, no progress is made in the prosecution of this alleged kidnapping kingpin. The foregoing characterizes the shoddy prosecution of criminals in Nigeria.
⦁    Deploying State-of-the-art technological gadgets
⦁    When we say novel gadgets, it doesn’t have to cost an arm and a leg. Some simple security gadgets like pepper spray if well and timely deployed, can immobilize prospective kidnappers. A pen recorder can record evidence. While it is a truism that the process of telephoning the family members of the victim of kidnapping presents a weak spot, there are cases where kidnappers try to circumvent this by constantly changing their location or being inside a fast-moving car, while making ransom demands.
⦁    The simple logic here is that the principle of tracking calls exploits extrapolating the nearest GSM masts transmitting the call at a particular point in time. This becomes a problem in a clime where tracking a call in REAL-TIME is difficult. To rein in kidnappings in Nigeria, Nigerian Security agencies MUST be several steps ahead of kidnappers in terms of deploying state-of-the-art equipment that can track GSM calls in REAL-TIME as is the case in most Western societies.
⦁    Set up a well-equipped anti-kidnapping squad in in all Divisional Police offices across Nigeria and encourage information/intelligence sharing amongst the security agencies.
⦁    Purge the Security agencies of bad eggs even from the point of enlistment
⦁    Very stringent background checks MUST be carried out on prospective enlistees into the security agencies (the Army, Navy, Air force, the Police, Department of State Security (DSS), National Intelligence Agency (NIA), Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), other sister organizations, not forgetting the Private Security Industry in Nigeria.
⦁    Merit and passion for the profession must be the yardstick for recruitment into the security services as against the current norm, where the aforementioned benchmarks are sacrificed in the altar of cronyism, godfatherism and the almighty ‘’quota or federal character’’ system.  The allegation by the HURIWA of a direct or indirect involvement of security agents/agencies in incidents of kidnappings in Nigeria must not be swept under the carpet. We call for a proper investigation and punishment of culprits where culpability is established.
⦁    Public awareness and enlightenment campaigns
⦁    The National Orientation Agency, similar agencies, including electronic and print media platforms must embark on anti-kidnapping awareness campaigns.
⦁    Rein in Fulani Herdsmen, Cattle rustlers
⦁    An emerging threat dynamic to kidnapping in Nigeria is the alleged connection of Fulani herdsmen in this ignoble trade. These folks supposedly engineered the kidnapping of Chief Olu Falae and that of the traditional ruler of Apaa-Bunu community in Kogi state, Oba Adebisi Obademi.
⦁    Aftermath of the kidnapping of Chief Olu Falae.
⦁    Fulani herdsmen have reportedly embarked on self-registration in South West. This sounds like a good idea worth replicating across Nigeria. On the other hand, we urge folks to desist from cattle rustling since some of the alleged kidnappings masterminded by Fulani herdsmen are in response to the frequent rustling of their cattle by their host communities.
⦁    Fulani herdsmen must play by the rules, not graze on farmlands.
⦁    Some people have also advocated for microchips to be implanted on livestock to stem the tide of cattle rustling, poaching.

Conclusion
Security is a collective responsibility. All hands must be on deck to rein insecurity, kidnapping in Nigeria.

***Continued from November 9, 2015