Repression Fuels Separatist, Independence Agitations

Cognizant of the far-reaching consequences of relapsing to using the military to quell disputes, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) recently slammed the penchant for military option in resolving internal conflicts in Nigeria. A recent analysis on the United States think-tank – Council on Foreign Relation’s website buttresses the above submission. Reuters correspondent, Edward McAllister, writes that ‘’State crackdown fuels independence push in Anglophone Cameroon’’. The report quoted Tapang Ivo Tanku, an Anglophone activist based in the United States as saying, “Last year, separatists couldn’t rally people on the streets. But people have seen family members arrested and killed, and they have switched over’’. Nigeria should learn a lesson from events in Spain. The more repressive the Spanish government was in trying to stop the Catalan referendum and independence campaign, the more sentiment and support the Catalan independence movement enjoyed. Though not as brutal and bloodletting as the Nigerian response but the Spanish government’s effort to block the Catalonia referendum apparently pushed Catalans hitherto sitting on the fence to support independence. It appears Catalans and Biafrans share something in common – unflinching quest for independence and resilience! Catalan republic or State has been proclaimed four times in the past – in the year 1641 by Pau Claris, in 1873 by Baldomer Lostau, in 1931 by Francesc Macia, in 1934 by Lius Companys. The current Catalan leader, Carles Puigdemont is bent on declaring Catalonian republic in 2017 sequel to the positive outcome of the Catalonia referendum. Lesson: repression is counter-productive.

 Barefaced Double Standard, Marginalization in Nigeria Festering Agitation

Nigeria is a very interesting country. Bands of Arewa youths issued a "Quit Notice" to Ndigbo living in the north. The Buhari administration and the security agencies were aloof. The Nation Newspaper reports that, Security agencies advised the government against arrest northern Youths who threatened and issued a ‘’quit notice’’ to Ndigbo residing in northern Nigeria. One Dr. Junaid Mohammed says there will be crises if police arrests Arewa youths. THISDAY Newspaper, August 30, 2017, reports that following accusations of bias, the Attorney General of the Federation (AGF) and Minister of Justice, Mr. Abubakar Malami (SAN), a fellow northerner and a Muslim says, ‘’the government resisted pressure to go after leaders of the Arewa Youth Consultative Forum after it gave due consideration to the security implications of arresting them’’. This same Malami prayed the court to withdraw the bail conditions granted to the leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), Nnamdi Kanu and also secured an ex parte motion declaring the IPOB, a terrorist organization. As far as Malami, the Nigerian government and establishment are concerned, there’s no ‘’security implications in laying siege on Nnamdi Kanu’s home or attempting to arrest him devoid of a court order.

Armed Niger Delta militants held the Buhari government by the jugular and nearly brought Nigeria’s oil production and export to comatose. The military’s ‘’Operation Crocodile Smile’’ in the Niger Delta didn’t halt blistering attacks on oil installations. Humbled, the Buhari administration used backdoor channels to negotiate an end to hostility in the Niger Delta. Masterminds – individuals and the cornucopia of militant groups in the Niger Delta were not branded terrorists or ‘’Terrorist organizations’’. Till date, the Buhari administration continues to pay monthly largesse to so-called reformed militants. The case is different for peaceful Biafra agitators; they don’t deserve an olive branch, President Buhari would rather have them crushed. Nigerian security agents summarily executed the erstwhile founder of Boko Haram, Mohammed Yusuf but Abubakar Shekau stepped in and upped the ante. Killing Nnamdi Kanu will only make him a martyr and this will further the Biafran Cause.

 President Buhari Advocating Independence For Palestine, Western Sahara

President Buhari’s speech at the 72nd session of the United Nations General Assembly, at the United Nations Headquarters in New York on September 18, 2017, where he morphed into a proponent of dialogue, human rights activist and independence advocate, smacks of rhetoric, to say the least. He says, ‘’we are now confronted by the desperate human rights and humanitarian situations in Yemen and most tragically in the Rakhine State of Myanmar’’. Continuing he opined, “The international community cannot remain silent and not condemn the horrendous suffering” of Rohingya Muslims. While advocating dialogue, a trait alien to his way, with North Korea, he also reminded the world ‘’the suffering of the Palestinian people and the blockade of Gaza’’. Isn’t it amazing seeing President Buhari seizing every vantage opportunity to rally support, stridently advocate independence for the Palestinian territory and Western Sahara’s (The People of Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, SADR) self-determination campaign from Morocco while clamping down on the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), other Biafran agitators in Nigeria? Brazen hypocrisy is when an authoritarian leader with abysmal human rights record champions independence for his Muslim kith and kin, preaches human rights and dialogue to the international community but clamps down on dissent at home. The lives of Palestinians, Rohingya and Western Sahara Muslims matter more than that of ‘’Biafrans’’ of southeast Nigeria?

IPOB Is Championing Self-Determination, Not A Terrorist Group

IPOB is a self-determination or separatist group advocating an independent State of Biafra from the Nigerian contraption. The Indigenous People of Biafra, IPOB, that the Nigerian government tagged a terrorist group had the audacity to protest on the 47th Street, Manhattan, New York, United States, on Tuesday, September 19, 2017 during President Buhari’s speech at the 72nd United Nations General Assembly. Daily Post Newspaper of September 24, 2017 quoted the United States government as saying it does not categorize the Indigenous People of Biafra, IPOB, as a terrorist organization. The spokesman of the American Embassy in Abuja, Nigeria, Mr. Russell Brooks stated that, “The Indigenous People of Biafra is not a terrorist organisation under US law”. Granted Nnamdi Kanu and the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) have seemingly pushed the envelope in advocating for Biafra independence but the IPOB is not a terrorist organization. Terrorism means different things to different people hence the saying that ‘one man’s terrorist is another’s freedom fighter’. The United States and the UK governments once considered Nelson Mandela a terrorist. Nelson Mandela’s name remained on the U.S. terrorism watch list till 2008. Mandela’s party – the African National Congress, ANC, was equally listed among 52 of the "world's more notorious terrorist groups." In August 1988, the State Department listed the ANC among "organizations that engage in terrorism.” It said the group ''disavows a strategy that deliberately targets civilians,” but noted that civilians had “been victims of incidents claimed by or attributed to the ANC.” In January 1989, the Defense Department included the ANC in an official publication, "Terrorist Group Profiles’’. Boko Haram was rightly and globally declared a terrorist group but the tag has proved to be a mere academic exercise.

I also don’t subscribe to the insinuation that the IPOB is spoiling for a civil war. I think their request is pretty simple – a referendum. Angling for a referendum is not tantamount to spoiling for war. If the Nigerian government is confident that a majority of southeasterners will opt to remain in #OneNigeria, why not organize a referendum and silence IPOB, MASSOB once and for all? There was a referendum in Scotland a few years ago, even before Brexit. After five centuries of coexistence with Spain, 90% of the 2.26 million Catalans who voted during the October 1, 2017, referendum, voted in favour of independence. Yes, there was a scuffle with Spanish security agencies but no life was lost. Security agents were seen dispensing first aid to people. Similarly, in the Kurdistan referendum which held on Monday, September 25, 2017, reports say about 93% of Iraqi Kurds voted for independence from Iraq. Again, no armoured tanks were deployed to rein in the process. Why the highhandedness and wanton killing of unarmed Biafra activists in Nigeria?

The principle of self-determination is a cardinal principle enshrined in Article I of the Charter of the United Nations. The UN charter says, ‘’All peoples have the right to self-determination. By virtue of that right they freely determine their political status and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural development’’. The right to self-determination of peoples is recognized in many other international and regional instruments, including the Declaration of Principles of International Law Concerning Friendly Relations and Co-operation Among States adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1970, 2, the Helsinki Final Act adopted by the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE) in 1975, 3, the African Charter of Human and Peoples' Rights of 1981, 4, the CSCE Charter of Paris for a New Europe adopted in 1990, 5, and the Vienna Declaration and Programme of Action of 1993.

Will IPOB, Biafra Agitators Embrace Militancy, Insurgency?

There are speculations as to the next line of action for IPOB, Biafra agitators sequel to the latest military clampdown and arguable designation of IPOB as a terrorist organization. The Nigerian government and opponents of Nnamdi Kanu routinely cite a video footage of him reportedly soliciting for arms during the World Igbo Congress which held in the United States of America few years ago as evidence of him been a threat. Notwithstanding Nnamdi Kanu’s outbursts and bravado, there’s no smoking gun that proves him or the IPOB have stockpiles of arms anywhere or that the group intends to morph into a militant or insurgent group. The relentless extrajudicial killing of unarmed Biafra agitators by Nigerian security operatives appears to incite discontentment, divergence of opinion. There seem to be a notion that the prevailing ‘’non-violence’’ modus operandi to actualize Biafra is tantamount to reciting poetry to someone who doesn’t appreciate poetry. Niccolo Machiavelli is quoted to have said, ‘’Hence it comes about that all armed Prophets have been victorious, and all unarmed Prophets have been destroyed’’. The line of reasoning is that balance of terror engenders a likeness of peacefulness; that the Nigerian government ‘settles’, patches up with Niger Delta militants and Boko Haram insurgents because the duo ‘negotiate’ from a position of strength unlike Biafra agitators. Perhaps this is why a hypothetical statement credited to Nnamdi Kanu suggests the IPOB may ‘’re-consider its non-violent separatist struggle’’. The above news report continued, “There is urgent need to begin the process of defending ourselves in the face of relentless murderous attacks from the Nigerian state”. Unless it was diversionary gambit, some militant groups sympathized with the Indigenous People of Biafra, IPOB, during the most recent relapse to militancy in the Niger Delta. Then one of the conditions for dialogue and ceasefire tabled by the Niger Delta Avengers, NDA, was the’’ immediate release of all pro-Biafrans activists held in various police/military custody within 72 hours’’. Another Niger Delta militant group, the Red Egbesu Water Lions, also gave the Nigerian government inter-alia, ‘’seven-day ultimatum to release IPOB leader Nnamdi Kanu, defreeze the bank accounts of ex-militant leader, Government Ekpemupolo, alias Tompolo’’, amongst other demands. However, Nnamdi Kanu subsequently denied any relationship with rampaging Niger Delta Avengers, NDA, nor with the MEND. So far there are no tidings of synergy between Niger Delta militants and the IPOB or other Biafra groups.

Nonetheless, my prognosis is that IPOB and other Biafra groups will lose the massive goodwill and global sympathy they currently enjoy if they morph into an armed rebellion. Again, the topography of the southeast is not suitable for the type of armed rebellion perpetrated by the Niger Delta militants and Boko Haram insurgents.

Evidenced, Rampaging Terrorist Group In Nigeria Other Than Boko Haram

Marauding herdsmen pose a bigger threat to national security than the Indigenous People of Biafra yet the Nigerian government is noncommittal. A United States think-tank – the Global Terrorism Index, GTI, declared that ‘’Nigerian Fulani militants (herdsmen) are the fourth deadliest terror group in world’’. The GTI says, ‘’only Boko Haram, ISIS, and Al-Shabab were deemed deadlier than the Fulani militant group operating in Nigeria and parts of the Central African Republic. According to the GTI, ‘’in 2013, the Fulani killed around 80 people in total – but by 2014 the group had killed 1,229’’.  September 19, 2017, a Crises Group report submits that, ‘’estimates suggests about 2,500 people were killed countrywide in 2016 due to raging conflict between herdsmen and farmers  – a toll higher than that caused by the Boko Haram insurgency over the same period. In a statement, the National Leader (South-south) of Action Democratic Party (ADP), Senator Roland Owie believes that the Buhari administration was not walking the way of justice and equity; otherwise, it should immediately declare Fulani herdsmen, who have continued to kill and maim innocent Nigerians in the north central and southern parts of Nigeria, as a terrorist group.

Conclusion: Biafra Precedes Muhammadu Buhari, Will Outlive Him!

Contrary to conjectures by vested interests and spin doctors, resurgence of Biafra agitation is not primarily aimed to destabilize the Buhari administration. Biafra is a resilient Spirit; 50 year old ideology and narrative. You need wisdom, superior argument to counter the narrative not bullets, armored tanks and fighter jets. The ‘’Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra’, ’MASSOB was formed on September 13, 1999 by Chief Ralph Uwazuruike during President Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration. Humanitarian news and analysis website – IRIN, published a report on December 7, 2005, titled, ‘’at least 12 dead in clashes over separatist protest’’ in southeast Nigeria. IRIN’s September 4, 2006 report ‘’Government cracks down on Biafra separatist resurgence’’ narrates how series of clashes in July, 2006, between activists linked to MASSOB and the police left dozens dead in Onitsha and several towns in the southeast. The report cites one Innocent Dike, a MASSOB official in Onitsha, who claimed that ‘’at least 200 suspected members of the group have been killed since troops were deployed. Several houses believed to belong to MASSOB activists were also razed’’. President Olusegun Obasanjo’s government treated the symptoms of Biafra agitation by deploying troops to repress MASSOB. Similar to a déjà vu, 2005 scenario is playing out ten years later. As if no lessons were learnt, the Buhari administration relapses to brute force. ‘’The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and expecting different results’’. If the crackdown on MASSOB failed at suppressing Biafra agitation, it is pretty certain it CANNOT rein in the now more vitriolic, aggressive, delirious IPOB steered by the Mercurial and exuberant Nnamdi Kanu. Premium Times publication of Friday September 22, 2017, cites the Nigerian Army declaring victory over Biafra agitators in southeast Nigeria. The deputy spokesman, 82 Division Nigerian Army Enugu, Colonel Sagir Musa, is quoted as saying, “despite the initial opposition” by IPOB “members” and “sympathizers”, “the general area of the Southeast especially Aba in Abia State is now fully stabilized”. I dare say it is too early to claim ‘’victory’’. Brute force, subjugation may have deferred but CANNOT quench the avid Biafra Spirit, especially if Nigeria as presently constituted and run, subsists.

 Written By:

© Don Okereke, a security analyst/consultant, writer

CEO, Holistic Security Background Checks Limited

http://www.holisticsecurity.com.ng

Twitter: @DonOkereke

October, 2017